The Politics of Immigration Reform

Ezra Klein blogged recently that the politics of immigration reform may actually be positive-sum, with both Democrats and Republicans gaining from its passage. Brian Beutler disagrees, arguing instead that either the Democrats or Republicans will be hurt by its passage (probably Republicans), and even though both parties think they will benefit, one them is simply wrong.

I'm more inclined to agree with Beutler, but I think it may be a little more complicated. Currently Hispanic citizens overwhelming vote for Democrats. If immigration reform passes, than there will eventually be more Hispanic citizens who will also generally vote for Democrats. At the same time, the Republicans perceive that Hispanic citizens don't vote for them because their hostility to immigration reform reflects a latent racism. They seem to feel that they could win back some of these Hispanic voters by dispelling this image. However, most Republicans understand that even if this happens they will be unlikely to "win Hispanic voters" outright (i.e. receiving over 50% of the Hispanic vote).

The ideal outcome for Democrats politically is for immigration reform to pass. The ideal outcome for Republicans politically is for immigration reform not to pass, but to fail in a way that makes it seem like Republicans aren't virulently hostile to undocumented immigrants or Hispanics generally. That way they may make some gains in the Hispanic vote (maybe a few percentage points), but won't add large numbers of new Hispanic voters to the populace.

That is the political context against which I view comments like these by Ted Cruz:

President Obama is pushing a path to citizenship as a "poison pill" to prevent meaningful immigration reform, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) charged Monday.

"The part that I’ve got deep concerns about is any path to citizenship for those who are here illegally," Cruz said during an interview with Sean Hannity. "I think that is profoundly unfair to the millions of legal immigrants who have followed the rules, who have waited in line.

"I think the reason that President Obama is insisting on a path to citizenship is that it is designed to be a poison pill to scuttle the whole bill, so he can have a political issue in 2014 and 2016. I think that's really unfortunate," continued Cruz.

Cruz is trying to kill the path to citizenship (which is essentially what comprehensive immigration reform is), but making it seem like it's actually Obama who is scuttling the bill. Even Rubio seems to be stalling the bill, claiming that everyone is agreeing to things too quickly. 

Now immigration reform may pass, lots of business groups on the Republican side favor this policy on substantive grounds, but I think the politics lean against it.