Priorities and the Ryan Budget

Matt Yglesias has a post detailing some findings from the Tax Policy Center on Paul Ryan's budget. In short, the Ryan budget proposes revenue-neutral tax reform and provides the tax rate goals but doesn't explain what loopholes will be closed to get there. The Tax Policy Center took the tax rate goals of the Ryan Budget and demonstrated that the distributional consequences are pretty skewed. Here's Yglesias:

Of course since rich people start out with higher after-tax incomes than the middle class, that larger percentage increase in after-tax incomes expands to an enormous gap in actual dollars. The poorest 20 percent of American households would receive, on average, a $60 tax cut. The middle 20 percent would get $1,961. The top 1 percent would get $227,420. The results are so skewed that I couldn't come up with a legible way of presenting them visually, but if you go up to the top 0.1 percent they get $1.2 million on average.

If the tax reform is revenue neutral than the distribution will be somewhat different depending on which loopholes get closed. More Yglesias:

It's difficult to say, however, without the details. And that's what's pernicious about this half-specific approach to tax policy. It's fine that Ryan doesn't want to usurp the role of the Ways & Means Committee, but by naming specific tax rates without naming specific tax deductions he's created a very confusing situation in which it's difficult to say what the consequences of this approach would really be.

The fact that we can't graph the final distribution of the changes is annoying, but by giving a "half-specific"outline of his tax policy Ryan has made his priorities crystal clear. The specificity given to the tax rate reductions signals that reducing rates (especially for wealthier individuals) is the number one priority of tax reform for Republicans. By not laying out which loopholes he would like to close, Ryan has made it clear that deficit neutrality is of secondary importance. The fact that he doesn't mention a distributional goal suggests that he really doesn't care about this at all. 

It would be fun to be able to graph a final distributional outcome to his plan, because in all likelihood it would perversely favor really wealthy individuals. But to the extent that a budget is about laying out the political priorities of a party, the Ryan budget gives us exactly that. As a political document, the budget isn't confusing at all. If Republicans return to power they will cut taxes, might try to close some loopholes, and won't really care who shoulders the burden/gets the benefit. The loophole tease is new, but the rest is old hat.