The GOP's Immigration Problem

The New York Times published a piece this morning on immigration reform. Essentially, Obama and the Democrats are pushing for a broad immigration reform bill, while GOP senators--including Marco Rubio--are working to break up the bill into a series of smaller measures:

Mr. Obama and Senate Democrats will propose the changes in one comprehensive bill, the officials said, resisting efforts by some Republicans to break the overhaul into smaller pieces — separately addressing young illegal immigrants, migrant farmworkers or highly skilled foreigners — which might be easier for reluctant members of their party to accept. 

I'm skeptical of the argument that all the GOP needs to do is moderate its stance on immigration to win over the hispanic vote. I think the economic policies of the Democrats are clearly more attractive to Hispanic voters. In addition, even though Hispanics are more pro-life than the average American, I don't think the GOP's version of cultural conservatism squares well with most Hispanics.

But what makes the plan to use immigration reform to woo the Hispanic vote so dumb, is that the Democrats are going to endorse polices that are more liberal on immigration than the GOP.  In any negotiation the Democrats will be pushing for comprehensive reform that grants more visas and a more clear and easy path to citizenship. The GOP will try to moderate its tone but will be working to undermine the complete overhaul of the system by replacing it with smaller measures and making things contingent on "border security". It will also face vocal and ugly opposition from more conservative house members and constituents--further alienating Hispanic voters. A clear political loser.