Jonathan Chait has a good post on the importance of the upcoming presidential election. His argument is basically that if Romney wins and the Republicans get 50 senators they will be able to use "budget reconciliation" procedures to pass the Ryan budget. Whereas, if Obama wins, because the Bush tax cuts automatically expire at the end of the year, he will plenty of leverage.
What's interesting is that it is sort of unclear at this point what Obama will use this leverage for. It would seem that the top progressive priority would be some form of cap-and-trade/carbon tax legislation. Obama could try to pair a renewal of the Bush tax cuts with a carbon tax. However, this hasn't really been discussed by the administration. My prediction is that he renews the middle class tax cuts, lets the cuts for those making over 250,000 expire, oversees the implementation of Dodd-Frank and Obamacare, and hopes that the economy is in better shape in two years and the Dems can take back the house. Environmental advocates should see this as an opportunity for Obama to push for carbon legislation.
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